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If a seagull flaps its wings along the Africa coast, will it cause a hurricane in Florida?
According to some scientific theories, the answer is yes. Maybe the bird’s wings will not
cause the storm, but they contribute energy that ultimately ends up in the storm. Just
because something cannot be measured does not make it impossible, only difficult to prove.
Another example: the computer industry and Apple’s role as a manufacturer with a small
market share.
The hue and cry declaring the personal computer dead is echoing through the tech industry,
mostly from the folks who have already wrung loads of cash out of selling personal
computers and are now moving on to video game consoles and digital television.
The personal computer industry has survived since its birth by selling the newest designs
to their existing user base, while growing that same base slowly over time. It has always
been the power users willing to pay top dollar for the latest high-margin products that
have driven the industry’s drool-worthy growth. But something bad happened in the last
quarter: The users stopped buying.
It is not just an Apple phenomenon. Sales of PCs are down everywhere. Every segment, from
education to consumers, domestic to international, is soft. In some places the bottom has
dropped out entirely. Not surprisingly, there are platoons of analysts ready to shovel
dirt on Apple’s grave and congratulate themselves on their prescience.
No so fast. Apple is, in fact, better off than many of the industry’s biggest players,
considering its cash position and inventory levels. Oh, and those groundbreaking products
in the pipeline should not be discounted, either.
There are two competing visions right now as to the future of Apple. One is aligned with
the “PC is dead crowd.” To these folks, wherever the PC goes, so goes Apple. The other
vision is far less optimistic. They think that Apple’s microscopic market share combined
with several recent missteps is going to sink the Apple once and for all. Two visions, but
both wrong, and for the same reason.
Apple has a tiny market share, true. It has been true since day one, and it may never
change. But before dismissing Apple as irrelevant, consider for a moment that numbers do
not mean everything. Some things cannot be measured, and just because something cannot be
held up to a yardstick does not make it imaginary. A TV commercial I saw this afternoon is
a perfect example. At first it looked like an Apple commercial. The opening shot focused
on five very colorful plastic gizmos that looked like future iBooks from a distance.
Except they were not computers. Not even close. They were George Forman kitchen grills.
iMac inspired designs are everywhere. Everywhere. Apple may not have an impressive market
share, but their influence can be seen everywhere you look. Every PC screen looks like Mac
System 6 was its ancestor. Every consumer product line from telephones to oven mitts has a
member that is colorful and semi-transparent. An army of copycats is not going to have
much of an effect on Apple’s bottom line. But it is also true that Apple’s loyal customers
can affect companies far beyond the PC industry.
Who needs market share when you control mind share?
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"More Than Meets the Eye"
